L’ATTRACTIVITE DES IDE EN ZONE FRANC : LE TAUX DE CHANGE EFFECTIF REEL IMPORTE-T-IL ?

B. E. ONGO NKOA, J. S. SONG

Résumé


Cet article examine l’effet du taux de change effectif réel sur l’attractivité des Investissements Directs Etrangers (IDE) des pays de la Zone Franc. Pour y parvenir, nous spécifions et estimons un modèle en données de panel par la Méthode des Moments Généralisés en Système (MMG-S) sur la période 1970-2017. Nos résultats montrent que la dépréciation du taux de change effectif réel réduit significativement les entrées d’IDE. Ce résultat est validé en presence de l’hypothèse d’élargissement de la zone Franc. Une réforme des mécanismes de fonctionnement de la Zone Franc contribuerait surement d’inverser ce résultat. Les dirigeants de ces pays doivent engager des réformes globalement soutenues par des politiques d’attractivité des pays.


Texte intégral :

PDF

Références


Abbott A., Cushman D.O., De Vita G. (2012) «Exchange rate regimes and foreign direct investment flows to developing countries». Review of International Economics, 20, 95-107.

Abbott A., De Vita G. (2011). Evidence on the impact of exchange rate regimes on bilateral FDI flows. Journal of Economic Studies, 38, 253-274.

Abel, A.B., (1983) Optimal Investment under Uncertainty, American Economic Review 73, 228-33.

Agarwal J. P. (1980) «Determinants of foreign direct investment: A survey». Weltwirschaftliches Archive, 116, 739-773.

Aizenman J. (1992) « Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility, and Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment». IMF Staff Papers, 39, 890-922.

Aizenman J., Marion N. (2004). «The merits of horizontal versus vertical FDI in the

presence of uncertainty». Journal of International Economics, 62, 125-148

Alaya M., Nicet-Chenaf, D., Rougier E. (2009). « A quelles conditions les IDE stimulent-ils la croissance ? IDE, croissance et catalyseurs dans les pays méditerranéens », Mondes en Développement, 37(48), 119-138.

Aliber R. (1970). A Theory of Direct Foreign Investment. In C. Kindleberger

(ed.).TheInternational Corporation. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Anyanwu J. C., Yameogo N. (2015) «What drives foreign direct investments into West Africa? An Empirical Investigation». African Development Review, 27(3), 199-215.

Arellano M., Bover O. (1995) «Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models». Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51.

Arellano M., Bond S. (1991) «Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations». Review of Economics

Studies, 58(2), 277-297.

Avom D., Amadou B. (2013) « La BEAC en quête de son autonomie ». Revue d’Economie Financière, 110 (2), 125-144.

Avom D., Ongo N. B. (2013) «Foreign Direct Investment in Central Africa: What are the Relevant Determinants? An empirical investigation». African Integration and Development Review, 6(2), 29-47.

Belke, A. and Gros, D., (1998), Evidence on the Cost of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability,

CEPS Working Document 121.

Belloumi M. (2014) «The relationship between trade, FDI and economic growth in Tunisia: An application of the autoregressive distributed lag model». Economic Systems, 38, 269-287.

Bénassy-Quéré A., Fontagné L., Lahrèche-Révil A. (2001) «Exchange-rate strategies in the

competition for attracting foreign direct investment». Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 15, 178-198.

Black S. (1977) Floating Exchange Rates and National Economic Policy. New Haven, Yale University Press.

Blonigen B.A. (1997) « Firm-specific assets and the link between exchange rates and foreign direct investment». American Economic Review, 87, 447-465.

Blundell R., Bond S. (1998) «Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models». Journal of Econometrics, 87, 115-43.

Boateng A., Xiuping H., Shaista N., Junjie W. (2015) «Examining the determinants of inward FDI: Evidence from Norway». Economic Modelling, 47, 118-127.

Borensztein E., Gregorio J., Lee J. (1998). «How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth? ». Journal of International Economics, 45, 115-135.

Buch C.M., Kleinert J. (2008) «Exchange rates and FDI: goods versus capital markets

frictions». The World Economy, 31, 1185-1207.

Buckley P., Casson, M., (1976) The Future of the Multinational Enterprise. London:

Macmillan.

Busse M., Berger A., Nunnenkamp P., Roy M. (2013) «Do trade and investment agreements lead to more FDI? Accounting for key provisions inside the black box». International Economics and Economic Policy,10 (2), 247-275.

Campa J.M. (1993) « Entry by foreign firms in the United States under exchange rate

uncertainty». Review of Economics and Statistics 75, 614-622.

Caves R. E. (1982) Multinational enterprises and economic analysis. Cambridge, UK7 Cambridge University Press.

Cleeve, E., Debrah Y., Yiheyis Z. (2015) «Human capital and FDI Inflow: An Assessment of the African Case». World Development, 74, 1-14.

Cnuced, (2018) Base de données sur les investissements directs étrangers, Nation Unies, Genève.

Cushman D.O., De Vita G. (2017) «Exchange rate regimes and FDI in developing countries: A propensity score matching approach». Journal of International Money and Finance, 77, 143-163.

Crowley P., Lee J. (2003) «Exchange rate volatility and foreign investment: international evidence». The International Trade Journal, 17, 27-252.

Cushman D.O. (1985) «Real exchange rate risk, expectations, and the level of direct

investment». Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, 297-308.

Davidson R. et Mackinnon J.G. (1993), Estimation and Inference in Econometrics. New York: Oxford University Press.

Deseatnicov I., Akiba H. (2016) “Exchange rate, political environment and FDI decision”, International Economics, 148, 16-30.

Devarajan S., Fengler W. (2013) « L'essor économique de l'Afrique. Motifs d'optimisme et de pessimisme ». Revue d’Economie du Développement, 21, 97-113.

Devereux M.B., Engel C. (2001) The optimal choice of exchange rate regime: Price-setting rules and internationalized production. NBER Working Paper, # 6992.

Dixit A., Pindyck R.S. (1994) Investment under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.

Dixit A. (1989) «Entry and exit decisions under uncertainty». Journal of Political

Economy 97, 620-638.

Dorn S. et Egger P. (2015) «On the distribution of exchange rate regime treatment effects on international trade». Journal of International Money and Finance, 53, 75-94.

Dodzin S. et Vamvakidis A. (2004) Trade and Industrialization in Developing Economies. Journal of Development Economics, 75, 319-328.

Dunning, J.H. (1980) «Toward an eclectic theory of international production: Some empirical tests». Journal of International Business Studies, 11(1), 9-31.

Dunning J.H. (1977). Trade, Location of Economic Activity and The MNE: A Search For An Eclectic Approach. In B. Ohlin, P.O. Hesselborn and P.M. Wijkman (Eds), The

International Allocation Of Economic Activity, 395-418. London: Holmes and Meier.

Durbin J. (1954), Errors in variables, Review of the International Statistical Institute, 22, 23–

Fontagné, L. and Freudenberg, M., (1999), Endogenous Symmetry of Shocks in a Monetary Union,

Open Economies Review 10(3), 263-288.

Frankel J.A., Froot K.A. (1987) «Using survey data to test standard propositions

regarding exchange rate expectations». American Economic Review, 77, 133-153.

Froot K. A., Stein J. C. (1991) «Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach». The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(4), 1191-1217.

Gnimassoun B. (2012) «Mésalignements du franc CFA et influence de la monnaie ancre ».

Economie & prévision, 2, 91-119.

Goldberg L.S. et Klein M. (1998) Foreign direct investment, trade and real exchange

rate linkages in developing countries. In: Glick, R. (Ed.), Managing Capital Flows

and Exchange Rates: Perspectives from the Pacific Basin. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 73-100.

Goldberg L.S., Kolstad C.D. (1995) «Foreign direct investment, exchange rate variability, and demand uncertainty». International Economic Review, 36, 855-873.

Guillaumont, P., Guillaumont S. (2017). «La Zone franc en perspective », Revue d’économie du développement, 25 (2), 5-40.

Hartman, R., (1972), The Effect of Price and Cost Uncertainty of Investment, Journal of Economic

Theory 5, 258-66.

Harris R.S., Ravenscraft D. (1991) «The role of acquisitions in foreign direct investment: evidence from the U.S. stock market». Journal of Finance, 46, 825-844.

Hausman J. (1978), Specification tests in econometrics, Econometrica, 46, pp. 1251-1272.

Healy P. et Palepu K.G. (1993) International equity acquisitions: who, where and

why? In: Froot, K.A. (Ed.), Foreign Direct Investment. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 231-253.

Helpman E. (1985) «Multinational Corporations And Trade Structure». Review of Economic

Studies, 52, 443-458.

Hosein S., Mirfatah M. (2012) «The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment in Iran». Procedia Economics and Finance 1, 365-373.

Hymer S. (1960). The International Operations of National Firms, A study of Direct Foreign

Investment. PhD, Dissertation, MIT.

Itagaki T. (1981). «The Theory of the Multinational Firm under Exchange Rate Uncertainty».

Canadian Journal of Economics, 14, 276-297.

Ito T., Isard P., Symansky S. et Bayoumi T. (1996) Exchange Rate Movements and Their Impact on Trade and Investment in the APEC Region. Chap IV, IMF Occasional Paper 145, December.

Kiyota K., Urata S. (2004). «Exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and foreign direct

investment». The World Economy, 27, 1501-1536.

Krugman P.R., Obstfeld M. (2009). International Economics: Theory and Policy (8th ed.). Pearson, Boston, MA.

Krugman P. (1991) «Increasing Returns and Economic Geography». Journal of Political

Economy, 99(3), 483-499.

Kouam J C. et Nafe D. (2019), Les déterminants de l’attractivité des Investissements Directs Etrangers dans la Communauté Economique et Monétaire de l’Afrique Centrale, BEAC Working Paper, BWP N° 05/19, 26 p.

Lee D. (2013) «New evidence on the link between exchange rates and asset-seeking acquisition FDI». North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 24, 153-158.

Markusen J. R. (1984). «Multinationals, Multi-Plant Economies, and The Gains From

Trade». Journal of International Economics, 16, 205-266.

Meese R.A. et Rogoff K. (1983) «Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies: Do They Fit out of Sample? ». Journal of International Economics, 14(1), 3-24.

Mundell R. (1957) «New International trade and Factor Mobility». The American Economic Review, 47, 321-335.

Nickell, S.J., (1978). The Investment Decision of Firms. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge.

Pain N., Van-Welsum D. (2003) «Untying the Gordian knot: the multiple links between exchange rates and foreign direct investment». Journal of Common Market Studies, 41, 823-846.

Stevens G.V.G. (1998) «Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: a note». Journal

of Policy Modeling, 20, 393-401.

Takagi S., Shi Z. (2011) «Exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI): Japanese investment in Asia, 1987-2008». Japan and the World Economy, 23, 265-272.

Sala H., and P. Trivin (2014). «Openness, Investment and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa». Journal of African Economies, 23(2), 257-289.

Schiavo S. (2007) Common currencies and FDI flows. Oxford Economic Papers, 59, 536-560.

Udomkerdmongkol M., Morrissey O., Gorg H. (2009) « Exchange rates and outward foreign direct investment: US FDI in emerging economies». Review of Development Economics, 13, 754-764.

Wekesa C., Wawire N., Kosimbei G. (2016) « the impact of Infrastructure Development on Foreign Direct Investment in Kenya». Journal of Infrastructure Development, 8(2), 93-110.

Wheeler D. et Mody A. (1992) « International investment location decision: The case for US Firms». Journal of International Economics, 33, 57-76.

Wu D. (1973), “Alternative tests of independence between stochastic regressors and disturbances”, Econometrica, 41, pp. 733-750.

Xing Y. (2006). «Why is China so attractive for FDI? The role of exchange rates». China Economic Review, 17, 198-209.


Renvois

  • Il n'y a présentement aucun renvoi.