OUVERTURE COMMERCIALE ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE AU TOGO

Palakiyèm KPEMOUA

Résumé


Ce papier analyse l’effet et le lien de causalité de l’ouverture commerciale sur la croissance économique du Togo, à l’aide d’un modèle quadratique, et des approches empiriques proposées par Pesaran et Shin (1999), Pesaran et al. (2001) et de test de causalité de Toda et Yamamoto (1995). Les résultats indiquent l’existence d’effets négatifs de l’ouverture commerciale sur la croissance, en particulier un seuil d’ouverture de 95,4 % en dessous duquel, l’effet demeure négatif et au-dessus duquel l’effet est positif à court et à long termes. Ceux de causalité confirment l’hypothèse d’une croissance tirée par l’ouverture commerciale.


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