EFFETS DE LA CORRUPTION SUR LA CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE EN REPUBLIQUE DU CONGO : UNE ANALYSE PAR UN MODELE NON LINAIRE AUTOREGRESSIF A RETARDS ECHELONNES (NARDL)

J. HAKIZIMANA

Résumé


Le présent article a pour objectif d’analyser les effets de la corruption sur la croissance économique en République du Congo. À cet effet, une analyse économétrique basée sur le Modèle non-linaire Autorégressive à Retards échelonnés (NARDL) et les données trimestrielles couvrant la période de 2003q1 à 2019q4 ont été utilisés. À travers le Test d’asymétrie de White, les résultats obtenus mettent en évidence l’existence des effets asymétriques de la corruption sur la croissance économique à court et à long terme, validant ainsi notre hypothèse de départ. En outre, il ressort de ces résultats que la croissance économique est plus sensible à l’augmentation de l’indice de perception de la corruption qu’à sa baisse. Les principaux enseignements à tirer de ces résultats sont tels qu’à court terme, la corruption constitue un frein à la croissance économique tandis qu’à long terme, elle devient un lubrifiant pour la croissance économique.


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