CHOC DES PRIX DES PRODUITS CEREALIERS ET SECURITE ALIMENTAIRE AU TOGO

Y. DANDONOUGBO, A. E. AGBODJI

Résumé


L’objectif de cette recherche est d’analyser l’influence de la fluctuation des prix des produits céréaliers sur la sécurité alimentaire à travers la disponibilité de la production céréalière au Togo. En se basant sur des données trimestrielles de la FAO et de la banque mondiale au cours de la période de 1991 à 2017, un modèle auto vectoriel structurel a été utilisé pour tester les hypothèses formulées. Ainsi, les résultats en termes de fonction de réponse impulsionnelle révèlent une influence significative et positive d’un choc de prix sur la disponibilité des céréales à partir du troisième trimestre. Par ailleurs, la décomposition de la variance montre que les fluctuations de la disponibilité de céréales sont expliquées dans une grande proportion par leurs propres chocs. Toutefois, la part des fluctuations de la disponibilité des céréales, expliquée par un choc de prix est de l’ordre de 22%.


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Références


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