CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ET SECURITE ALIMENTAIRE DES MENAGES RURAUX AU NIGER

E. I. ILLA

Résumé


L’objectif de ce papier est de mesurer à la fois les effets des facteurs socioéconomiques (âge, sexe, bien de ménage, consommation alimentaire…) et environnementaux (survenance des chocs climatiques comme l’inondation et la sécheresse qui sont nos variables d’intérêt) sur la situation de sécurité alimentaire (considérée comme variable dépendante catégorielle : sévère, à risque, modérée, sécurisée) à l’échelle ménage en milieu rural. Les données utilisées proviennent de l’enquête nationale sur la vulnérabilité à l’insécurité alimentaire des ménages réalisée au Niger en 2017 par l’Institut Nationale de la Statistique sur un échantillon de 9354 individus.

La méthodologie adoptée consiste à identifier un certain nombre de variables qui caractérisent les dimensions de l'analyse classique de la sécurité alimentaire au niveau ménage. Les trois variables identifiées à cet effet sont le score de consommation alimentaire, la possession de bétail et les dépenses de ménage. Après une régression logistique multinomiale, la probabilité pour un ménage d'être en sécurité alimentaire augmente avec les facteurs suivants : possession d'animaux ; âge du ménage ; nombre de champs ou de jardins cultivés ; dépenses en agriculture / outils / semences ; consommation de lait / de fruits / de viande. La probabilité pour un ménage d'être en sécurité alimentaire diminue avec les facteurs suivants : la taille du ménage ; la part de ses dépenses consacrées à l'éducation ; la survenance d'un événement de stress climatique tel que les inondations et la sécheresse.

Ainsi nous recommandons au gouvernement d’élaborer des plans de réponse pour venir en aide aux ménages en insécurité alimentaire et impactés par les inondations et / ou sécheresse. Ensuite, pour renforcer lacapacité des ménages à lutter contre l’insécurité alimentaire, l’Etat devrait injecter plus de moyen dans le secteur agropastoral pour la vulgarisation de l’élevage, la lutte contre la dégradation des terres cultivables et l’accès à des matériels agricoles et des nouvelles semences à croissance rapide robustes à la sécheresse et aux inondations.


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