HYPOTHESE DE LA MARCHE ALEATOIRE DE LA CONSOMMATION : UNE VERIFICATION EMPIRIQUE A PARTIR DES DONNEES AGREGEES DU CONGO - BRAZZAVILLE

G. MBONGO KOUMOU

Résumé


Le présent article analyse l’hypothèse de la marche aléatoire de la consommation selon une vérification empirique à partir des données agrégées du Congo-Brazzaville. Ainsi, il fixe l’objectif de vérifier le modèle de cycle de vie- revenu permanent et de l’anticipation rationnelle (Robert Hall, 1978) selon lequel la consommation suit une marche aléatoire. Le test utilisé est celui de Campbell et Mankiw (1989) avec des données portées sur la période allant de 1960 à 2020. Les résultats obtenus suggèrent le rejet de cette hypothèse. En plus le test de la racine unitaire a montré que la série sur la consommation est stationnaire et suit un processus de tendance stationnaire. Enfin de cette conclusion, il a été dégagé quelques implications de politique économique basée sur les prévisions de la consommation à au long terme et sur la décomposition croissance / fluctuation usuelle en analyse conjoncturelle.


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